Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
